FOMC CALENDAR
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Real GDP Growth
quarterly · 2025-10-010.7% annualized
-3.70(-84.1%)
REGIME DETECTION
EARLY CYCLE
Recession Probability25%
Low RiskHigh Risk
Unemployment Trend
Unemployment at 4.4% — labor market softening
4.4
GDP Growth
GDP growing at 0.7% annualized
0.7
CPI Inflation
CPI at 2.66% YoY — near target range
2.7
Fed Funds Rate
Fed funds at 3.64% — accommodative/neutral
3.6
Initial Jobless Claims
Claims at 213K — stable
213000.0
Consumer Sentiment
U of Michigan sentiment at 56.4 — recession-level pessimism
56.4
Last recession ended: 2020-04
CPI (YoY)
monthly · 2026-02-012.7%
-0.17(-6.0%)
Core CPI (YoY)
monthly · 2026-02-012.7%
-0.22(-7.5%)
Unemployment Rate
monthly · 2026-02-014.4%
+0.10(+2.3%)
Fed Funds Rate
monthly · 2026-02-013.6%
0.00(0.0%)
Initial Jobless Claims
weekly · 2026-03-07213000.0thousands
-1000.00(-0.5%)
Consumer Sentiment
monthly · 2026-01-0156.4index
+3.50(+6.6%)
10Y Breakeven Inflation
daily · 2026-03-132.4%
-0.02(-0.8%)